What Happened Last Week In Venezuela? 🙃 Yoris Was Blocked, But Rosales Registered His Candidacy
Rosales, Márquez... and González Urrutia?
So… Who is the candidate?
Discretionally, the National Electoral Council (CNE) blocked the opposition's Unitary Platform from accessing the candidate registration system until the deadline expired: leaving the opposition, through its MUD card, unable to register Corina Yoris or any candidate.
But shortly before midnight, without any official announcement, Manuel Rosales managed to register his candidacy through the card of his party Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) –which had supposedly been blocked until that moment– and the support of Fuerza Vecinal. So far, the positions of the members of the Unitary Platform regarding Rosales' candidacy have been diverse.
“We know that we are not going to the elections in the circumstances that we would have wanted, but we are going because we know that it is our best opportunity. It is not intended to replace or replace anyone's leadership, on the contrary, it is to take on a challenge for the good of all, and with the need to work coordinated for a common objective,” said Stalin González of UNT when announcing Rosales’ candidacy. Rosales also said he could hand his candidacy to whoever the Unitary Platform ends up supporting.
Previously, former CNE board member Enrique Márquez –who was an important member of UNT– also surprisingly registered a candidacy with the minor party Centrados, which was expressly rehabilitated by the CNE. He said he was not part of the Platform.
In addition to Nicolás Maduro, Márquez and Rosales, the CNE also accepted the candidacies of nine candidates from the loyal “oppositions.” It also blocked the candidacy of dissident Chavismo.
The next day, María Corina Machado gave a press conference where she reiterated that her candidate is Corina Yoris, said that the regime chose its candidates and spoke of “deceptions and betrayals.” However, she avoided directly mentioning Rosales and said that she would not abandon the electoral path, insisting on free elections where Venezuelans can freely choose their candidates.
Shortly after Machado's press conference, Gustavo Petro's government reiterated "the need for a free, fair and competitive presidential electoral process in Venezuela" and "expresses its concern" about "difficulties that majority opposition sectors faced" when registering candidates, mentioning the Platform and Vente. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry responded to the Colombian Foreign Ministry and accused it of committing “gross interference” and pandering to the US State Department. This diplomatic incident marks the first major public rift between the Petro and Maduro governments. Brazil also spoke out: “Based on the information available, it is observed that the candidate nominated by the Unitary Platform, on which there were no judicial decisions, was prevented from registering, which is not compatible with the Barbados agreements. ” Venezuela also accused Brazil of “interference” and of following in the footsteps of the State Department. Later, Brazilian President Lula da Silva said that blocking Corina Yoris' candidacy is “serious” and “has no legal explanation.”
Shortly after the announcements and apparent negotiations, the CNE opened an extension so that the Unitary Platform could register a “cover” or “placeholder” candidate that would allow the Platform room for maneuver and negotiation. The candidate would be Edmundo González Urrutia, a career diplomat who was Venezuela's ambassador to Argentina and Algeria.
Manuel Rosales also gave a press conference. He affirmed his recognition for Machado and his respect for Yoris and explained that “there were just a few minutes left until the process was closed and I decided to sign up to build change.” However, he refused to explain why access to the UNT card was unblocked at the last minute for him. “I am not coming to replace anyone, nor to remove leadership. I come to rebuild Venezuela, without hatred,” he stated.
On Friday, Jorge Rodríguez told Lula, Petro and Felipe “Pepe” Mujica – international allies of Chavismo– to “put your opinions wherever they fit.” The relations with Argentina also continue to deteriorate rapidly: the government of Javier Milei confirmed that they received Machado's team in its embassy in Caracas, after an escalation of repression, and denounced an interruption of the electrical service there by the Venezuelan State.
Meanwhile, Venezuelan consulates and embassies in countries such as Colombia and Spain finally opened the Electoral Registry for Venezuelans in those countries.
American nightmare
The US Justice definitively dismissed all the charges against the Colombian businessman Alex Saab, who was fred in December 2023, after the presidential pardon of Joe Biden as part of the prisoner exchange.
Meanwhile, according to the Wall Street Journal, senior US officials –such as Jake Sullivan, Amos Hochstein and Jon Finer– are promoting a different approach in which the United States prioritizes strategic interests over political change in Venezuela: for example, oil supply to the US and keeping Venezuela in Western markets, less likely to approach China and Iran. If this approach prevails, it will lead to the United States not reimposing sanctions on Venezuelan oil and gas in April. However, an official says, the relaxation of sanctions will remain in place if Venezuela "upholds" its electoral commitments.
According to data from the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Venamcham), trade between Venezuela and the United States reached $6,092 billion at the end of 2023, a growth of 127.4% compared to 2022 when it was $2,680 billion.
Venezuelan migration to the United States falls
The controversial TikToker Leonel “Leito Oficial” Moreno, who has become known for fueling negative stereotypes of Venezuelan migrants in the United States and promoting home invasions in that country, was arrested in Ohio by a special Homeland Security unit that tracks fugitives, since he did not comply with parole measures after crossing the border illegally.
Also, the number of Venezuelans who crossed the border between the United States and Mexico illegally through ports of entry fell from 46,919 in December to 3,184 in February even though there has been no change in policies in the United States. This suggests a role for the Mexican government.
Venezuela on fire
According to NASA, the number of fires in Venezuela, in January and February 2024, exceeded 9,000, more than in the same period since records began in the early 2000s. In March, NASA detected more than 11,000 fires: the highest figure since 2003. Fires continue to affect biodiverse ecosystems and national parks such as Henri Pittier.
This month, too, massive sightings of cannonball jellyfish (Stomolophus meleagris) have been reported on the coasts of Carabobo, Falcón and Aragua. According to the NGO Azul Ambientalistas –based on precedents from Peru and Mexico– the proliferation may be due to oil spills on the Venezuelan coasts: such as Morrocoy in 2020, El Palito in 2023 or the constant spills around Paraguaná. When spills occur, “hydrocarbon degradation processes begins by bacteria that, in turn, serve as food for copepods, the main food of jellyfish,” explains Gustavo Carrasquel, director of the organization.
Some light for the West?
The Minister of Electric Energy, Néstor Reverol, reported that a two-turbine hydroelectric complex in the state of Barinas was reactivated, adding 120 megawatts to Alto Apure, Mérida, Táchira and Trujillo – affected by blackouts lasting several hours. According to Reverol, the reactivation of the complex occurred after 60 days in which more than one million cubic meters of sediments were cleared from the reservoir.
Recommendations
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Both María Corina and Rosales have leveraged strategic ambiguity, writes Pedro Garmendia, which is based on revealing little information about their limits and tactics to allow room for maneuver in the future. And it can bring surprises.
“His words seem more targeted at legitimizing Maduro as the country’s democratic president instead of organizing any true opposition to his authoritarian rule. Instead of a systemic change, he rather seems comfortable with carving up his own kingdom in the spaces the current PSUV-centered system allows”, writes Luis González in an article recounting Rosales' career and why it reaps distrust in other opponents.